Thursday, April 20, 2006

NHL Playoff Preview Part II: Picking The West

Two years removed from almost bringing the Cup back to Canada for the first time since the '93 Canadiens, Calgary returns to the postseason as one of the favorites to come out of the West. No longer an underdog, the Flames will try to use the same aggressive style which worked so well two years ago. Playing the role of spoiler could be their first round opponents, Anaheim. The Ducks are cast in a similar role to the one they had three years ago which carried them within one game of a Cup.

While the Flames should be formidable, they'll most likely have to go through a familiar Western power. Even in the Postcap Era, the Red Wings proved to be the most cohesive team during the regular season. Easily taking home The President's Trophy with 124 points, they'll look for better results than the past two playoff disappointments. They could have their hands full against a dangerous Edmonton team.

Flying under the radar could be the well balanced Dallas Stars. In order to go far, they'll need to exact some first round revenge against the always skilled Avalanche.

While the Predators come in without much fanfare due to the loss of goalie Tomas Vokoun due to blood clots, their opponents San Jose enter as the hottest team in the conference having won eight of their last nine. Led by Art Ross winner Joe Thornton and Rocket Richard recipient Jonathan Cheechoo, the Sharks could make some noise.

It's time to break it down.

WESTERN CONFERENCE MATCH-UPS

(1) Detroit vs (8) Edmonton

Analysis: The Wings have tremendous balance but could start the series without leading scorer Pavel Datsyuk due to a hip injury. That means emerging star Henrik Zetterberg must pick up the slack along with rejuvenated Brendan Shanahan. Jason Williams and Mikael Samuelsson have played about as well as expected. Nicklas Lidstrom will most likely win his fourth Norris. Mathieu Schneider and Chris Chelios had brilliant seasons but will their age show against the youthful Oilers? Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff and Jarret Stoll provide plenty of speed while Ryan Smyth adds grit. Chris Pronger was brought in to be a difference maker. He's never had much postseason success. Does that change? Manny Legace should give the Wings an edge in net over Dwayne Roloson. This could be Steve Yzerman's final postseason and he's been playing like it. It says here the Oilers will challenge Detroit but ultimately fall short.

Red Wings in six

(2) Dallas vs (7) Colorado

Analysis: The Stars are probably the most overlooked 112 point two seed in playoff history. Mike Modano bounced back from an awful '03-04 campaign while Jason Arnott had a career season posting 32 goals and 76 points. Brenden Morrow and Jere Lehtinen were utterly brilliant and rookie Jussi Jokinen can do more than score in shootouts. Bill Guerin had a quiet season but could reemerge. Sergei Zubov had one of his finest seasons which could finally get him nominated for the Norris. Partner Phillipe Boucher was great all year. But it all hinges on Marty Turco. Last time against Colorado, he faltered badly. The Avalanche don't have Peter Forsberg anymore but still possess Joe Sakic, Alex Tanguay and Milan Hejduk. Andrew Brunette and Ian Laperriere were surprising contributors. If the Avs had Marek Svatos, they'd be more formidable. Outside of Rob Blake and John-Michael Liles, Patrice Brisebois has played well. But this series comes down to Turco against Jose Theodore. Toss in the fact Dallas is better defensively and the balance shifts in their favor.

Prediction: Stars in six

(3) Calgary vs (6) Anaheim

Analysis: This series has the potential to be the best. The Ducks shouldn't be underestimated. Scott Niedermayer anchors the D while a resurgent Teemu Selanne is the offensive leader. His 40 goals and 90 points were his most since '99-00 when he had 33 goals and 85 points also as a Duck. Andy McDonald posted career highs in goals (34), assists (51) and points (85). Chris Kunitz came from nowhere to be a factor and rookies Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry played well down the stretch. They'll hope Jean-Sebastien Giguere can recreate some of the magic from three years ago. The Flames will go as far as dynamic duo Jarome Iginla and Vezina frontrunner Miikka Kiprusoff take them. Daymond Langkow, Chuck Kobasew and Tony Amonte must provide offense. If they have a clear advantage, it's on the blueline with Calder candidate Dion Phaneuf. Phaneuf's 20 goals and 49 points placed third on the Flames. Andrew Ference and Roman Hamrlik can contribute while Robyn Regehr adds a physical presence. The series will depend on the pace. If Calgary can slow down Anaheim, they'll come out on top.

Prediction: Flames in seven

(4) Nashville vs (5) San Jose

Analysis: Nashville will be the underdog in this series despite home ice. Without Vokoun, they'll need Chris Mason to be spectacular against the league's most lethal scoring combo in Thornton and Cheechoo. In just 58 games, Thornton produced 92 points while helping Cheechoo lead the league in goals. He scored 49 of his 56 after Thornton arrived. Patrick Marleau flew under the radar posting career bests in goals (34), assists (52) and points (86). Nils Ekman, Milan Michalek and future star Steve Bernier are formidable. On the blueline, Tom Preissing can jump into the play while Christian Ehrhoff is vastly underrated. So, how can the Preds win? They certainly have enough balance. After Paul Kariya and Steve Sullivan, it's scoring by committee. Any number of players including deadline pickup Mike Sillinger, Yanic Perreault, Scott Hartnell, Martin Erat can finish. David Legwand is also healthy which should help. Marek Zidlicky, Kimmo Timonen and Dan Hamhuis can all chip in fron the blueline. This should be a high scoring series. It will come down to Mason against Sharks' netminder Vesa Toskala. Neither has much playoff experience but Toskala has a slight edge because he played well down the stretch. Thornton really needs to come through here. This is his time to shine.

Prediction: Sharks in seven


WESTERN SEMIS: (5) Sharks over (1) Red Wings in six

(3) Flames over (2) Stars in six


CONFERENCE FINAL: (3) Flames over (5) Sharks in five


STANLEY CUP CHAMPION: Calgary Flames over New Jersey Devils in six

Conn Smythe- Miikka Kiprusoff

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