Nadal Looks For Repeat In Paris, On Collision Course With Federer

Last year, Rafael Nadal won his first ever grand slam at the age of 19 to capture the French Open. In the process, he defeated world number one Roger Federer in a four set semifinal before besting Mariano Puerta in the final to become King of the clay.

After winning eight of his ATP high 11 2005 titles on the red surface, Nadal has followed it up by continuing to pile up victories on his favorite surface this year. Of his four titles so far, he's won three more on clay including an epic five set victory over Federer at Rome which lasted five hours.

Recently, he matched Guillermo Vilas' Open era record with his 53rd consecutive triumph on clay. If the second ranked Spaniard beats first round opponent Robin Soderling, he'll have the record.

However, that's not the goal for the soon to be 20-year-old who will attempt to successfully defend his crown in Roland Garros. Standing in the way could be Federer, who he's already beaten twice this year including at Dubai. Unlike most of Federer's chief competition, Nadal has won five of six career meetings entering the French Open. If they do meet, it will happen in what would be one of the most anticipated finals in recent history.

But first, each needs to get there. Here's a look at who could stand in the way:

BRACKET BREAKDOWN

Section One: This features top seeded Federer along with seventh seeded Spaniard Tommy Robredo, Mario Ancic (12), Nicolas Kiefer (13), American Robby Ginepri (17), Tomas Berdych (20), Jose Acasuso (26) and Chilean Nicolas Massu (32).

Potential Sleepers: French veteran Arnaud Clement could be a tricky first round opponent for Federer. His unorthodox style might make for an interesting match but Federer should get through unscratched. Look for Spaniard Albert Montanes to knock off the slumping Ginepri. Montanes could make some noise in the bottom half as too could French magician Fabrice Santoro. Santoro has a tough opponent in Acasuso but will have tons of support. Belgian Kristof Vliegen is another player that's worth keeping an eye on. The 23-year-old is having a breakout season which has seen his ranking climb to a career best 36 entering this tournament. He recently lost in a clay court final at Munich to Olivier Rochus but comes in playing well.

Who Should Advance: While there are other accomplished players in Federer's portion of the draw, he should get through. Look for a potential third round meeting with either Massu or Xavier Malisse. Either should test him just enough as he reaches the Round of 16 where familiar nemesis Kiefer could be waiting. But don't bank on it. Strange things happen on clay. Either way, Federer will be waiting in the quarterfinals for most likely two-time quarterfinalist Robredo. Expect him to get through the first two rounds without a problem before being challenged by Acasuso, Santoro or Vliegen. Robredo could face Ancic in the Round of 16 but that won't happen. Either way, he should setup an intriguing quarter against Federer.

The Pick: Federer could run into trouble against Robredo. This definitely won't be an easy match because Robredo is a solid player who can run down balls and also isn't afraid to come into net. However, Federer's penchant for coming up with the big shots when he needs it and will to win should be enough in four competitive sets to advance to the semifinals.

Section Two: This includes third seeded Argentine David Nalbandian, sixth seeded Russian Nikolay Davydenko, '04 French Open champ Gaston Gaudio (10), Jarkko Nieminen (16), Sebastien Grosjean (21), '03 French winner Juan Carlos Ferrero (24), Carlos Moya (30) and Dmitry Tursunov (31).

Potential Sleepers: Nalbandian doesn't have an easy draw. He'll face 21-year-old Swiss Stanislas Wawrinka in the opening round. Wawrinka made the third round in his French debut last year. If Nalbandian wins, he'll most likely meet Richard Gasquet. After a promising '05, the 19-year-old Frenchman has struggled winning just four of 14 matches this year. But he still is very capable and has the arsenal to give Nalbandian trouble. Tim Henman is also in that side of the bracket and a potential third round opponent but it depends on his back. Other dangerous players include Andrei Pavel, Mikhail Youzhny, American Paul Goldstein and Italian Potito Starace.

Who Should Advance: Despite two potential tough early rounds, Nalbandian should have enough to get through to the third round where he could meet either Tursunov or Henman. He should beat either to make the Round of 16. There he could face Nieminen or Grosjean. The bottom half could see an upset. While Davydenko is a solid player, he might have his hands full with Starace in Round 2. Moya will most likely be waiting in the third round. The former '98 champion is always formidable on clay. If Gaudio and Ferrero advance to the third round, the two former champs will meet. Look for Gaudio to make the Round of 16 where he could face either Davydenko or Moya.

The Pick: This is a tough field to call because it's possible that form won't hold. Nalbandian usually finds his way through at the majors but his bracket is top heavy. He should still make the Elite 8. Gaudio seems to have an easier path to the fourth round than Davydenko. If that match happens, it should be a tough baseline battle. I'll take Gaudio to advance and face Nalbandian in the quarters. On this surface, I like Gaudio to setup a semifinal showdown with Federer.

Section Three: This bracket features fourth seeded Croat Ivan Ljubicic, fifth seeded American Andy Roddick, Radek Stepanek (11), Spaniard David Ferrer (15), Thomas Johansson (18), Australian Open runner up Marcos Baghdatis (19), Belgian Olivier Rochus (27) and Fernando Verdasco (28).

Potential Sleepers: Julien Benneteau and Davide Sanguinetti both are capable of making some noise. But the player to watch could be Gilles Simon. The 21-year-old Frenchman is only entering his third slam. He's won 15 of 23 matches this year and most likely will play Ljubicic in the second round. He'll have tons of crowd support which could give it a Davis Cup feel. Other players who could win a couple of matches are Christophe Rochus and Juan Ignacio Chela. Both will have tough first round opponents. Rochus plays Johansson while Chela goes against Verdasco. Don't be surprised if they pull upsets throwing a wrench into this bracket.

Who Should Advance: With Roddick uncertain as to whether he'll even play his first round match against Alberto Martin due to a sore ankle, it's likely his side of the draw will open up. This has never been his best surface anyway. Look for Olivier Rochus to take advantage of it. The quick Belgian shotmaker is tough on clay and should reach the Round of 16. Expect seeds to fall by the wayside giving Rochus a clear path to the quarters. The bottom half is Ljubicic's to win or lose. But he'll be challenged by Simon and probably Verdasco. Still, he should make it to the fourth round. Expect Christophe Rochus to upset Johansson and setup a third round match against Ferrer. That would be a toss up. Either should have too much footspeed for Ljubicic.

The Pick: Olivier Rochus has always had a lot of talent and this is his chance to break through. In an all brother quarter, I like him to defeat Christophe in four sets, advancing to his first career slam semi.

Section Four: This includes defending champ and second seed Nadal, eighth seeded American James Blake, ninth seeded Chilean Fernando Gonzalez, Lleyton Hewitt (14), Dominik Hrbaty (22), German Tommy Haas (23), Frenchman Gael Monfils (25) and countryman Paul-Henri Mathieu (29).

Potential Sleepers: Thailand's Paradorn Srichaphan is a vet of the tour who's played somewhat better than his 11-12 record. He enters ranked 43rd and won't be an easy foe for Blake. British teen Andy Murray has struggled since firing his coach. However, he has a lot of game and sets up an intriguing first round against Monfils. Novak Djokovic is another player who could make some noise. If he advances into the second round, he'll meet the winner of Gonzalez or Marat Safin. Speaking of unpredictable. Since returning from knee surgery, the two-time slam winner has been up and down. He's capable of beating or losing to anyone. Czech Robin Vik gave Hewitt problems in the opening round at Melbourne. He has the game to make some noise.

Who Should Advance: Clearly, this is Nadal's bracket to win or lose. It's tailor made for him to cruise to the semis. Blake, who gives him problems on the hardcourts will be hardpressed to win more than a couple of rounds. Look for the top half to open up. If Monfils gets by Murray, he could make the Round of 16. Haas is the next best player in that section but after a blazing start, he's run into injuries. The clay doesn't suit his game. Gonzalez should get by Safin due to conditioning. If he plays Djokovic, that will be close. Nadal shouldn't have any problems making the Round of 16. In his half, Hewitt has been marred by injuries all season and isn't the same player. He could get bounced early. Look for Nadal to meet Hrbaty for a spot in the quarters.

The Pick: It's Nadal by a country mile. There just isn't much here to challenge him. His game is perfect for this surface and he'll most likely play an inexperienced Monfils in the elite eight. Nadal won't even break a sweat setting up a semi meeting against Olivier Rochus.

Semifinal Breakdown: In one semi, world number one Federer would play '04 French champ Gaudio. Gaudio is good on this surface because of his footspeed. The problem is Federer's one of the quickest players on tour and can elevate his game when needed. Gaudio should test him but fall in four sets. It would be Federer's first final at Roland Garros, giving him a chance to complete the Grand Slam by finally winning the French.

The other semifinal features defending champion Nadal against Rochus. Both are very quick but Nadal's size and strength should prove too much for the fiesty Rochus. I'll give Rochus one set because he fights extremely hard. But Nadal should prevail to setup the dream final everyone wants to see.

2006 French Open Champion: Rafael Nadal, Spain

Federer is the best player in the world but Nadal has a bit of a mental edge if this final unfolds. He's beaten Federer five of six times and even survived a couple of championship points in their five hour epic at Rome earlier this month before prevailing. On the line will be Federer's perfect slam final record (7-0) against Nadal's clay court win streak which would reach 59. It would be a classic battle of wills between the two strongest players. I like Nadal in five sets to win his second consecutive French Open and close the gap as the battle for Number 1 heats up this summer.