Monday, June 26, 2006

Women's Wimbledon Preview: Venus Aims For Repeat

The women's field was not at full strength as play began Monday at The All England Club. Former champion Serena Williams along with last year's runner up Lindsay Davenport both remain sidelined with injuries. Both also missed the French Open. Also unable to take part in a second straight major due to injury is Mary Pierce. Their losses will be felt.

When play resumes Tuesday, American Venus Williams will take aim at defending her crown. Having surprised most by winning her third Wimbledon (first since 2001), the sixth seeded five-time slam winner is in the same bracket as 2006 Australian Open winner Amelie Mauresmo.

The topseeded Frenchwoman will look to bounceback from a disappointing Roland Garros which saw her ousted in the fourth round by Nicole Vaidisova. A three-time semifinalist at Wimbledon, her savvy topspin baseline game and underrated net play should serve her well.

However, Mauresmo should get tested in the second round against either Michaella Krajicek or Samantha Stosur. The 17 year-old younger sister of 1996 Wimbledon winner Richard, Krajicek is coming off a win this past weekend at s'Hertogenbosch, Netherlands. It was her second title of the year. She takes an 18-8 record into the tournament.

Also in Mauresmo's bracket is Frenchwoman Tatiana Golovin (29). If she wins her first two matches, the 18 year-old who made the Round of 16 two years ago could meet Mauresmo in the third round.

If Mauresmo gets through, a potential Round of 16 opponent could be Dinara Safina (14). The younger sister of Marat made a name for herself in Paris with a comeback upset win over Maria Sharapova to reach her first ever slam quarter. But she blew a 5-1 first set lead against eventual runner up Svetlana Kuznetsova, losing in straight sets. Safina hits a heavy ball much like her brother and has a good serve. It all depends on if her shots are going in.

For Williams, her path could be easier to the quarters. She shouldn't be threatened until the fourth round when she'll most likely meet either Russian Anastasia Myskina (9) or Spaniard Anabel Medina Garriques (23). Neither should be able to knock off Venus.

Mauresmo should setup an intriguing quarter against Williams. On the grass, Venus covers so much ground. Combine that with an easier path plus having the experience of winning these types of matches should work to her advantage to reach the semifinals.

Maria Sharapova should be waiting for Williams to setup a semi rematch from last year which Venus prevailed in.

The 19 year-old fourth seeded Russian has battled injuries this season and not been in her best form. However, the 2004 Wimbledon champion shouldn't be counted out. She has a big serve along with some of the deadliest groundstrokes on the WTA Tour. Throw in her will to win and you have a very competitive player who is capable of winning her second major in three years at the All England Club.

Her draw couldn't be easier. If she's in form, Sharapova should cruise into the Round of 16 where she could face either Italian Flavia Pennetta (16) or Israeli Shahar Peer (20). Both are pesky players but look for Peer to advance and face Sharapova. The 19 year-old who just made the fourth round in Paris hits the ball very well from the baseline and attacks. Similar to Sharapova, she can challenge her. But look for the Russian's serve and nerves of steel to be the difference.

Who Sharapova meets in the quarters depends on countrywoman Elena Dementieva. Always a solid player, the seventh seeded 24 year-old has struggled this year at the first two slams- bowing out in Round 1 at Australia and Round 3 in Paris. She has lethal groundstrokes and is a great returner, plus an underrated net game. Her biggest problem is the serve. Continuing to spin it in, opponents constantly attack a weak second serve. Also prone to double faults, it hurts her chances of holding serve, making it an uphill battle.

Dementieva faces Indian teen Sania Mirza in the opening round. Though the 19 year-old has struggled winning only seven of 19 matches this season, she's capable of giving Dementieva trouble. It will not be an easy match but one the Russian should get through.

If Dementieva finds her game, she should make the third round where she might play countrywoman Elena Likhovtseva (25). Her game shouldn't pose much of a problem.

A potential Round of 16 opponent is Italian Francesca Schiavone. The fiesty 11th seed is a tricky baseliner who can make some noise. A match against Dementieva would probably go three sets but I'll take the Russian to setup a quarterfinal against Sharapova. Sharapova should prevail to setup a semi rematch against Williams.

The third section includes Roland Garros champion Justine Henin-Hardenne. The repeat winner in Paris is looking to complete a career Grand Slam with a win in London. The five-time slam champ is healthier than last year's quick exit when she fell to Elena Daniilidou. Fresh off a three set win over Myskina at Eastbourne this past weekend, she comes in with plenty of confidence.

Her draw is fairly easy until the fourth round where she could meet either Daniela Hantuchova (15) or Katerina Srebotnik (21). While both are formidable players, neither should have enough to upset Henin-Hardenne. If there is one sleeper in that section it could be American Jamea Jackson. The 19 year-old recently upset Sharapova in the semis at Birmingham before losing the final in two tiebreaks to Vera Zvonareva. She comes in playing well and could pull a couple of upsets.

The other side of the draw is tailor made for an All Swiss fourth round between Patty Schnyder and Martina Hingis. Returning to the tournament for the first time in five years, the 25 year-old who captured it at the age of 16 will try to go further than the quarters of the first two majors in her comeback. Both times, she fell to Kim Clijsters.

This time, she should get through the eighth seeded Schnyder and will have to deal with Henin-Hardenne in the quarters. This would be a great match between two of the game's smartest players. Both aren't afraid to use the entire court and toss in drop shots or volley. That's why it should be memorable. For some reason, I like Hingis to prevail in three sets here and reach the semis.

The final bracket includes Clijsters and Kuznetsova on opposite ends. The second seeded Clijsters was leading 5-4 in the first set against a tough first round opponent in Zvonareva before rain halted play. That should be a tricky match considering the unpredictable Russian entered having won at Birmingham. She's a streaky player who can be dangerous. Clijsters should still get through.

If she does, the 23 year-old Belgian has an easy path to the Round of 16 where she could meet either German Anna-Lena Groenefeld (13) or Russian Maria Kirilenko (17). While both are solid players with bright futures, neither should be able to stop Clijsters.

Clijsters should be waiting in the quarters for Kuznetsova. That's if she makes it. The French Open runner up should breeze through the first two rounds before a good test against China's Na Li (27). She should get through that to setup a possible Round of 16 match against Czech Nicole Vaidisova.

The 17 year-old had Kuznetsova on the ropes at Roland Garros in the semifinals. Up a set and serving to make her first Grand Slam final, she succumbed to the pressure before dropping a tiebreak and losing in three sets. It's how Vaidisova rebounds from that loss which will show if she's ready to win a major. She boasts a huge serve and arguably the best forehand on the WTA Tour. Both should be huge weapons on the grass court surface. What makes her so tough is that she can also toss in some touch with a slice backhand.

If she plays Kuznetsova again, I like her to avenge the loss in Paris and reach her first ever Wimbledon quarter against Clijsters.

A quarter match against Clijsters would favor the Belgian due to her footspeed. Both hit with power and both are streaky. If Vaidisova doesn't get caught up in the moment, she has enough power to win this match. We'll take her with another upset to meet Hingis in the other semifinal.

Semifinals: The first semifinal would be a rematch of last year when Williams avenged her sister's 2004 final loss to Sharapova to reach the final and win her third Wimbledon. Both can serve well and each are extremely streaky. They like to dictate points from the baseline. What separates Williams from Sharapova is her ability to get to extra balls and make volleys. She should prevail in three sets to reach a second straight final.

The second semi pits experience against youth in Hingis against Vaidisova. Vaidisova hits much harder than her older opponent. However, Hingis keeps more of her shots in and uses every possible angle which can fluster opponents. She is very good at adjusting. In this environment, that should be the difference to lift Hingis to a slam final against Williams.

2006 Wimbledon Women's Champion: Venus Williams, USA. This would be a great final if it happens. It renews one of the best rivalries in women's tennis and it would take place on the biggest stage. The contrast in styles makes it compelling. It would go three sets but in the end Venus' power should be too much for Hingis to overcome. It would give her a repeat and a fourth Wimbledon crown.

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